Predictions · J. League 100 Year Vision League Placement Matches · outside model coverage

Yokohama F.Marinos

30
Won

Shimizu S-Pulse

The model leans Yokohama F.Marinos at 50%. Expected goals: Yokohama F.Marinos 1.60, Shimizu S-Pulse 0.86. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 53%. Yokohama F.Marinos won 3 of their last 6; Shimizu S-Pulse won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Yokohama F.Marinos54%1.86
XDraw27%3.65
2Shimizu S-Pulse19%5.27

Pick: Yokohama F.Marinos. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.60 – 0.86
LineOverUnder
1.570%30%
2.545%55%
3.523%77%
Both teams to scoreYes46%No54%

Most likely scores

  • 1013.7%
  • 1111.8%
  • 2010.9%
  • 219.4%
  • 008.5%
  • 017.3%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Yokohama F.Marinos −0.5
Yokohama F.Marinos lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.529%71%
-129%25%45%
-0.555%45%
055%25%20%
+0.580%20%
+180%14%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.