Predictions · Superettan · outside model coverage

Norrby

02
Lost

IK Oddevold

The model leans Norrby at 41%. Expected goals: Norrby 2.03, IK Oddevold 1.72. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 72%. Norrby won 1 of their last 6; IK Oddevold won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Norrby45%2.23
XDraw23%4.38
2IK Oddevold32%3.09

Pick: Norrby. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.03 – 1.72
LineOverUnder
1.589%11%
2.572%28%
3.552%48%
Both teams to scoreYes71%No29%

Most likely scores

  • 218.3%
  • 118.2%
  • 227.2%
  • 127.0%
  • 315.7%
  • 324.9%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Norrby −0.5
Norrby lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.526%74%
-126%20%54%
-0.546%54%
046%21%33%
+0.567%33%
+167%17%17%
+1.583%17%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.