Predictions · Allsvenskan · outside model coverage

GAIS

11
Lost

Halmstads BK

The model leans GAIS at 62%. Expected goals: GAIS 2.11, Halmstads BK 0.62. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 59%. GAIS won 3 of their last 6; Halmstads BK won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1GAIS71%1.40
XDraw20%5.00
2Halmstads BK9%11.38

Pick: GAIS. Calibrated probability 62% (raw model output 71%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.11 – 0.62
LineOverUnder
1.576%24%
2.551%49%
3.529%71%
Both teams to scoreYes41%No59%

Most likely scores

  • 2014.5%
  • 1013.8%
  • 3010.2%
  • 219.0%
  • 118.5%
  • 006.6%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 45% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: GAIS −1.5
GAIS lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.547%53%
-147%25%28%
-0.572%28%
072%18%10%
+0.590%10%
+190%7%2%
+1.598%2%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.