Palmeiras
Vasco da Gama
The model leans Palmeiras at 67%. Expected goals: Palmeiras 2.42, Vasco da Gama 0.67. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 55%. Palmeiras won 2 of their last 4; Vasco da Gama won 4 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Brazil| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Palmeiras | 75% | 1.33 | 1.57 | 59% | +16 |
| XDraw | 17% | 5.89 | 3.90 | 24% | −7 |
| 2Vasco da Gama | 8% | 13.04 | 5.50 | 17% | −9 |
Pick: Palmeiras. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 75%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.42 – 0.67| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 2–013.3%
- 1–011.0%
- 3–010.7%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–17.4%
- 3–17.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Palmeiras −1.5| Palmeiras line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| -1 | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| -0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| 0 | 76% | 16% | 8% |
| +0.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
| +1 | 92% | 6% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.