Vitória
Vasco da Gama
The model leans Vitória at 50%. Expected goals: Vitória 1.75, Vasco da Gama 1.17. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%. Vitória won 1 of their last 5; Vasco da Gama won 4 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vitória | 50% | 2.01 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.89 | – | – | – |
| 2Vasco da Gama | 24% | 4.10 | – | – | – |
Pick: Vitória. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.75 – 1.17| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–08.2%
- 1–26.5%
- 0–16.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vitória −0.5| Vitória line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 23% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 24% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 15% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.