Vasco da Gama
Cruzeiro
The model leans Vasco da Gama at 34%. Expected goals: Vasco da Gama 1.40, Cruzeiro 1.37. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 57%. Vasco da Gama won 4 of their last 4; Cruzeiro won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Brazil| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vasco da Gama | 37% | 2.73 | 1.96 | 48% | −11 |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.59 | 3.40 | 28% | 0 |
| 2Cruzeiro | 36% | 2.81 | 3.80 | 25% | +11 |
Pick: Vasco da Gama. Calibrated probability 34% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.40 – 1.37| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%
- 1–08.7%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.3%
- 0–06.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vasco da Gama 0| Vasco da Gama line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 20% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 25% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.