Predictions · Copa do Brazil · outside model coverage
Atlético-MG
2–1
Won
Cruzeiro
The model leans Atlético-MG at 40%. Expected goals: Atlético-MG 1.46, Cruzeiro 1.13. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match44
28
28
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atlético-MG | 44% | 2.30 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.51 | – | – | – |
| 2Cruzeiro | 28% | 3.57 | – | – | – |
Pick: Atlético-MG. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.46 – 1.13| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–08.0%
- 0–07.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Atlético-MG −0.5| Atlético-MG line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 23% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 18% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.