Cruzeiro
3–1
Won
Mirassol
The model leans Cruzeiro at 44%. Expected goals: Cruzeiro 1.56, Mirassol 1.08. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match47
28
25
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cruzeiro | 47% | 2.12 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.61 | – | – | – |
| 2Mirassol | 25% | 3.97 | – | – | – |
Pick: Cruzeiro. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.56 – 1.08| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%
- 1–011.1%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–17.7%
- 0–07.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 43% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cruzeiro −0.5| Cruzeiro line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 24% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 25% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.