Vasco da Gama
Vitória
The model leans Vasco da Gama at 42%. Expected goals: Vasco da Gama 1.66, Vitória 1.24. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. Vasco da Gama won 4 of their last 4; Vitória won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vasco da Gama | 46% | 2.18 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.78 | – | – | – |
| 2Vitória | 28% | 3.62 | – | – | – |
Pick: Vasco da Gama. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.66 – 1.24| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–27.0%
- 0–16.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 54%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vasco da Gama −0.5| Vasco da Gama line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 22% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 24% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 17% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.