Athletico Paranaense
Vitoria
The model leans Athletico Paranaense at 50%. Expected goals: Athletico Paranaense 1.61, Vitoria 0.89. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%. Athletico Paranaense won 2 of their last 3; Vitoria won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Athletico Paranaense | 53% | 1.88 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.67 | – | – | – |
| 2Vitoria | 20% | 5.12 | – | – | – |
Pick: Athletico Paranaense. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.61 – 0.89| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.2%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–010.7%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.2%
- 0–17.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Athletico Paranaense −0.5| Athletico Paranaense line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| -1 | 29% | 25% | 46% |
| -0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| 0 | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 14% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.