Sao Paulo
1–2
Lost
Athletico Paranaense
The model leans Sao Paulo at 38%. Expected goals: Sao Paulo 1.29, Athletico Paranaense 1.05. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 52%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match41
30
29
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sao Paulo | 41% | 2.46 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.29 | – | – | – |
| 2Athletico Paranaense | 29% | 3.47 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sao Paulo. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.29 – 1.05| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%
- 1–012.5%
- 0–110.1%
- 0–09.7%
- 2–18.4%
- 2–08.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sao Paulo 0| Sao Paulo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 23% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 19% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.