Sao Paulo
1–1
Lost
Coritiba
The model leans Sao Paulo at 42%. Expected goals: Sao Paulo 1.39, Coritiba 0.95. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 53%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Brazil46
30
25
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sao Paulo | 46% | 2.19 | 1.71 | 54% | −9 |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.36 | 3.30 | 28% | +2 |
| 2Coritiba | 25% | 4.07 | 5.25 | 18% | +7 |
Pick: Sao Paulo. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.39 – 0.95| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.4%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–09.6%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–19.2%
- 2–18.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sao Paulo −0.5| Sao Paulo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 24% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 17% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.