Coritiba
0–1
Lost
Cruzeiro
The model leans Coritiba at 37%. Expected goals: Coritiba 1.24, Cruzeiro 1.06. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 52%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match39
31
30
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Coritiba | 39% | 2.56 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.24 | – | – | – |
| 2Cruzeiro | 30% | 3.33 | – | – | – |
Pick: Coritiba. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.24 – 1.06| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.5%
- 0–110.7%
- 0–010.1%
- 2–18.2%
- 2–07.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Coritiba 0| Coritiba line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 23% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 28% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.