FK Radnik Surdulica
Novi Pazar
The model leans FK Radnik Surdulica at 40%. Expected goals: FK Radnik Surdulica 1.41, Novi Pazar 1.08. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 51%. FK Radnik Surdulica won 1 of their last 5; Novi Pazar won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FK Radnik Surdulica | 43% | 2.31 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.43 | – | – | – |
| 2Novi Pazar | 27% | 3.64 | – | – | – |
Pick: FK Radnik Surdulica. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.41 – 1.08| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–08.3%
- 2–08.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FK Radnik Surdulica −0.5| FK Radnik Surdulica line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 23% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 27% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.