Predictions · Serbian Super Liga · outside model coverage

Novi Pazar

10
Won

FK Radnicki 1923

The model leans Novi Pazar at 37%. Expected goals: Novi Pazar 1.16, FK Radnicki 1923 0.96. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 56%. Novi Pazar won 2 of their last 6; FK Radnicki 1923 won 1 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Novi Pazar39%2.55
XDraw32%3.10
2FK Radnicki 192329%3.50

Pick: Novi Pazar. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 71%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.16 – 0.96
LineOverUnder
1.563%37%
2.536%64%
3.517%83%
Both teams to scoreYes42%No58%

Most likely scores

  • 1014.0%
  • 1113.4%
  • 0012.0%
  • 0111.5%
  • 208.1%
  • 217.8%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Novi Pazar 0
Novi Pazar lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.517%83%
-117%23%59%
-0.541%59%
041%30%30%
+0.570%30%
+170%19%11%
+1.589%11%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.