Novi Pazar
OFK Beograd
The model leans OFK Beograd at 36%. Expected goals: Novi Pazar 1.21, OFK Beograd 1.32. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 53%. Novi Pazar won 2 of their last 6; OFK Beograd won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Novi Pazar | 33% | 3.06 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.41 | – | – | – |
| 2OFK Beograd | 38% | 2.63 | – | – | – |
Pick: OFK Beograd. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.21 – 1.32| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–09.6%
- 1–28.4%
- 0–08.0%
- 2–17.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Novi Pazar 0| Novi Pazar line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 20% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 27% | 39% |
| +0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| +1 | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.