OFK Beograd
FK Radnik Surdulica
The model leans OFK Beograd at 43%. Expected goals: OFK Beograd 1.37, FK Radnik Surdulica 0.90. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 54%. OFK Beograd won 1 of their last 4; FK Radnik Surdulica won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1OFK Beograd | 46% | 2.16 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.32 | – | – | – |
| 2FK Radnik Surdulica | 24% | 4.25 | – | – | – |
Pick: OFK Beograd. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.37 – 0.90| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.1%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–010.3%
- 2–09.6%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: OFK Beograd −0.5| OFK Beograd line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 25% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 28% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 16% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.