Predictions · Serbian Super Liga · outside model coverage

FK Radnik Surdulica

11
Lost

Mladost Lucani

The model leans FK Radnik Surdulica at 50%. Expected goals: FK Radnik Surdulica 1.40, Mladost Lucani 0.73. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 60%.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1FK Radnik Surdulica52%1.93
XDraw30%3.33
2Mladost Lucani18%5.47

Pick: FK Radnik Surdulica. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.40 – 0.73
LineOverUnder
1.563%37%
2.536%64%
3.517%83%
Both teams to scoreYes39%No61%

Most likely scores

  • 1016.7%
  • 1112.1%
  • 0012.0%
  • 2011.7%
  • 018.7%
  • 218.5%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: FK Radnik Surdulica −0.5
FK Radnik Surdulica lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.526%74%
-126%27%47%
-0.553%47%
053%28%19%
+0.581%19%
+181%14%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.