Junior FC
Once Caldas
The model leans Junior FC at 46%. Expected goals: Junior FC 1.64, Once Caldas 1.11. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%. Junior FC won 1 of their last 5; Once Caldas won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Junior FC | 49% | 2.06 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.72 | – | – | – |
| 2Once Caldas | 25% | 4.07 | – | – | – |
Pick: Junior FC. Calibrated probability 46% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.64 – 1.11| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.7%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–17.1%
- 1–26.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Junior FC −0.5| Junior FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 23% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| 0 | 50% | 25% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.