Predictions · Cup · outside model coverage
Once Caldas
3–0
Won
Envigado
The model leans Once Caldas at 51%. Expected goals: Once Caldas 1.60, Envigado 0.78. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 56%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match56
27
17
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Once Caldas | 56% | 1.79 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.67 | – | – | – |
| 2Envigado | 17% | 5.91 | – | – | – |
Pick: Once Caldas. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.60 – 0.78| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.9%
- 2–011.9%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 53% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Once Caldas −1| Once Caldas line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 26% | 43% |
| -0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| 0 | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 13% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.