Once Caldas
America de Cali
The model leans Once Caldas at 40%. Expected goals: Once Caldas 1.29, America de Cali 0.96. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 54%. Once Caldas won 3 of their last 6; America de Cali won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Once Caldas | 43% | 2.34 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.24 | – | – | – |
| 2America de Cali | 26% | 3.80 | – | – | – |
Pick: Once Caldas. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.29 – 0.96| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.6%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–010.6%
- 0–110.1%
- 2–08.8%
- 2–18.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Once Caldas −0.5| Once Caldas line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 24% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.