Real Cartagena
America de Cali
The model leans America de Cali at 41%. Expected goals: Real Cartagena 0.95, America de Cali 1.34. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 53%. Real Cartagena won 1 of their last 3; America de Cali won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Cartagena | 25% | 3.97 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.30 | – | – | – |
| 2America de Cali | 44% | 2.25 | – | – | – |
Pick: America de Cali. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.95 – 1.34| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.6%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–010.1%
- 1–09.6%
- 0–29.1%
- 1–28.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: America de Cali −0.5| Real Cartagena line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 17% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 28% | 46% |
| +0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| +1 | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.