Predictions · Primera B · outside model coverage
Real Cartagena
5–1
Won
Real Santander
The model leans Real Cartagena at 68%. Expected goals: Real Cartagena 2.44, Real Santander 0.54. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 61%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match79
16
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Cartagena | 79% | 1.27 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.39 | – | – | – |
| 2Real Santander | 6% | 17.76 | – | – | – |
Pick: Real Cartagena. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 79%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.44 – 0.54| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 2–015.2%
- 1–012.5%
- 3–012.3%
- 2–18.2%
- 4–07.5%
- 1–16.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Real Cartagena −2| Real Cartagena line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| -1 | 57% | 23% | 21% |
| -0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| 0 | 79% | 14% | 6% |
| +0.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
| +1 | 94% | 5% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.