Real Cartagena
Independiente Valle del Cauca
The model leans Real Cartagena at 51%. Expected goals: Real Cartagena 1.49, Independiente Valle del Cauca 0.68. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 61%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Cartagena | 56% | 1.80 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.50 | – | – | – |
| 2Independiente Valle del Cauca | 16% | 6.35 | – | – | – |
Pick: Real Cartagena. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.49 – 0.68| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 1–017.1%
- 2–012.7%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–011.5%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–17.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Real Cartagena −0.5| Real Cartagena line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| -0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| 0 | 57% | 26% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 12% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.