Atletico FC
Independiente Yumbo
The model leans Independiente Yumbo at 30%. Expected goals: Atletico FC 0.92, Independiente Yumbo 1.03. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 60%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atletico FC | 30% | 3.31 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.94 | – | – | – |
| 2Independiente Yumbo | 36% | 2.79 | – | – | – |
Pick: Independiente Yumbo. Calibrated probability 30% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.92 – 1.03| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 87% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 0–114.6%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–113.5%
- 1–013.1%
- 0–27.5%
- 1–26.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Atletico FC 0| Atletico FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 20% | 68% |
| -0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| 0 | 32% | 31% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 23% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.