Predictions · Colombia Primera A Finalización · outside model coverage
Fortaleza FC
1–2
Lost
Once Caldas
The model leans Fortaleza FC at 35%. Expected goals: Fortaleza FC 1.20, Once Caldas 1.11. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 52%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match37
31
32
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fortaleza FC | 37% | 2.72 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.24 | – | – | – |
| 2Once Caldas | 32% | 3.10 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fortaleza FC. Calibrated probability 35% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.20 – 1.11| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–111.0%
- 0–09.9%
- 2–17.9%
- 1–27.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fortaleza FC 0| Fortaleza FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 22% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 20% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.