Predictions · Cup · outside model coverage
Junior FC
2–2
Lost
Barranquilla FC
The model leans Junior FC at 71%. Expected goals: Junior FC 3.25, Barranquilla FC 0.72. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 50%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match85
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Junior FC | 85% | 1.18 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 11% | 9.43 | – | – | – |
| 2Barranquilla FC | 5% | 22.03 | – | – | – |
Pick: Junior FC. Calibrated probability 71% (raw model output 85%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 95%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.25 – 0.72| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 3.5 | 56% | 44% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 3–010.8%
- 2–010.0%
- 4–08.8%
- 3–17.8%
- 2–17.2%
- 4–16.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Junior FC −2| Junior FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| -1 | 68% | 17% | 15% |
| -0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| 0 | 85% | 10% | 5% |
| +0.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
| +1 | 95% | 4% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.