Predictions · Colombia Primera A Finalización · outside model coverage

Junior FC

01
Lost

Millonarios

The model leans Junior FC at 50%. Expected goals: Junior FC 1.80, Millonarios 1.15. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%. Junior FC won 1 of their last 5; Millonarios won 2 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Junior FC51%1.94
XDraw25%3.95
2Millonarios23%4.30

Pick: Junior FC. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.80 – 1.15
LineOverUnder
1.579%21%
2.557%43%
3.534%66%
Both teams to scoreYes57%No43%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.8%
  • 219.7%
  • 109.4%
  • 208.5%
  • 126.2%
  • 016.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Junior FC −0.5
Junior FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.529%71%
-129%23%48%
-0.552%48%
052%23%24%
+0.576%24%
+176%15%10%
+1.590%10%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.