Millonarios
Deportivo Pasto
The model leans Millonarios at 51%. Expected goals: Millonarios 1.97, Deportivo Pasto 1.15. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%. Millonarios won 2 of their last 3; Deportivo Pasto won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Millonarios | 55% | 1.80 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.21 | – | – | – |
| 2Deportivo Pasto | 21% | 4.80 | – | – | – |
Pick: Millonarios. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.97 – 1.15| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–08.6%
- 3–16.5%
- 1–25.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Millonarios −1| Millonarios line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 23% | 44% |
| -0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| 0 | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 13% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.