Predictions · Cup · outside model coverage
Bogota FC
0–3
Won
Deportivo Pasto
The model leans Deportivo Pasto at 51%. Expected goals: Bogota FC 0.90, Deportivo Pasto 1.79. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 50%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match17
25
57
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bogota FC | 17% | 5.73 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.97 | – | – | – |
| 2Deportivo Pasto | 57% | 1.74 | – | – | – |
Pick: Deportivo Pasto. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.90 – 1.79| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 0–112.2%
- 1–110.9%
- 0–210.9%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–06.8%
- 0–36.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 30% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Deportivo Pasto −1| Bogota FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 13% | 81% |
| -0.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| 0 | 19% | 23% | 58% |
| +0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| +1 | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| +1.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.