Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Cali
The model leans Deportivo Pasto at 37%. Expected goals: Deportivo Pasto 1.32, Deportivo Cali 1.13. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 51%. Deportivo Pasto won 1 of their last 5; Deportivo Cali won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Deportivo Pasto | 40% | 2.52 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.36 | – | – | – |
| 2Deportivo Cali | 31% | 3.27 | – | – | – |
Pick: Deportivo Pasto. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.32 – 1.13| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.9%
- 1–011.4%
- 0–19.7%
- 0–08.6%
- 2–18.5%
- 2–07.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Deportivo Pasto 0| Deportivo Pasto line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 22% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.