Predictions · Colombia Primera A Finalización · outside model coverage
Deportivo Cali
2–0
Won
CD Jaguares
The model leans Deportivo Cali at 53%. Expected goals: Deportivo Cali 1.72, CD Jaguares 0.70. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match61
26
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Deportivo Cali | 61% | 1.65 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.92 | – | – | – |
| 2CD Jaguares | 14% | 7.26 | – | – | – |
Pick: Deportivo Cali. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.72 – 0.70| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.3%
- 2–013.2%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.9%
- 3–07.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Deportivo Cali −1| Deportivo Cali line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| -1 | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| -0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| 0 | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 11% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.