Predictions · Colombia Primera A Finalización · outside model coverage

Deportivo Cali

11
Lost

Bucaramanga

The model leans Deportivo Cali at 42%. Expected goals: Deportivo Cali 1.36, Bucaramanga 0.94. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 53%. Deportivo Cali won 2 of their last 4; Bucaramanga won 0 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Deportivo Cali45%2.21
XDraw30%3.32
2Bucaramanga25%4.05

Pick: Deportivo Cali. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.36 – 0.94
LineOverUnder
1.567%33%
2.541%59%
3.520%80%
Both teams to scoreYes45%No55%

Most likely scores

  • 1013.6%
  • 1112.8%
  • 009.9%
  • 019.4%
  • 209.3%
  • 218.7%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Deportivo Cali −0.5
Deportivo Cali lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.522%78%
-122%24%53%
-0.547%53%
047%28%26%
+0.574%26%
+174%17%9%
+1.591%9%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.