Predictions · Colombia Primera A Finalización · outside model coverage
Bucaramanga
1–1
Lost
Llaneros FC
The model leans Bucaramanga at 51%. Expected goals: Bucaramanga 1.52, Llaneros FC 0.68. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 60%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match56
28
16
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bucaramanga | 56% | 1.78 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.54 | – | – | – |
| 2Llaneros FC | 16% | 6.43 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bucaramanga. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.52 – 0.68| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.8%
- 2–012.8%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–17.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bucaramanga −1| Bucaramanga line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| -0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| 0 | 57% | 26% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 12% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.