Bucaramanga
Cucuta
The model leans Bucaramanga at 59%. Expected goals: Bucaramanga 2.12, Cucuta 0.84. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 51%. Bucaramanga won 0 of their last 3; Cucuta won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bucaramanga | 66% | 1.52 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.69 | – | – | – |
| 2Cucuta | 13% | 7.81 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bucaramanga. Calibrated probability 59% (raw model output 66%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.12 – 0.84| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.7%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.2%
- 3–08.2%
- 3–16.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bucaramanga −1| Bucaramanga line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| -1 | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| -0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| 0 | 67% | 19% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 10% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.