Independiente Medellin
Cucuta
The model leans Independiente Medellin at 64%. Expected goals: Independiente Medellin 2.48, Cucuta 0.81. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 51%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Independiente Medellin | 73% | 1.37 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 17% | 5.75 | – | – | – |
| 2Cucuta | 9% | 10.67 | – | – | – |
Pick: Independiente Medellin. Calibrated probability 64% (raw model output 73%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.48 – 0.81| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.5%
- 3–09.5%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–17.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Independiente Medellin −1.5| Independiente Medellin line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| -1 | 52% | 22% | 26% |
| -0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| 0 | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| +0.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
| +1 | 90% | 7% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.