Tolima
Cúcuta
The model leans Tolima at 61%. Expected goals: Tolima 2.05, Cúcuta 0.62. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 59%. Tolima won 3 of their last 3; Cúcuta won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tolima | 70% | 1.43 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.84 | – | – | – |
| 2Cúcuta | 9% | 10.91 | – | – | – |
Pick: Tolima. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 70%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.05 – 0.62| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 2–014.6%
- 1–014.2%
- 3–010.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–18.8%
- 0–06.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 8% · BTTS No 54%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Tolima −1.5| Tolima line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| -1 | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| -0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| 0 | 71% | 19% | 10% |
| +0.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
| +1 | 90% | 8% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.