Predictions · Cup · outside model coverage
Deportivo Pasto
0–1
Lost
Bogota FC
The model leans Deportivo Pasto at 68%. Expected goals: Deportivo Pasto 2.53, Bogota FC 0.63. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 56%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match78
16
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Deportivo Pasto | 78% | 1.28 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.43 | – | – | – |
| 2Bogota FC | 6% | 15.46 | – | – | – |
Pick: Deportivo Pasto. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 78%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.53 – 0.63| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 2–013.6%
- 3–011.5%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–18.6%
- 4–07.3%
- 3–17.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Deportivo Pasto −2| Deportivo Pasto line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| -1 | 57% | 22% | 21% |
| -0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| 0 | 79% | 14% | 7% |
| +0.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
| +1 | 93% | 5% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.