Predictions · Colombia Primera A Finalización · outside model coverage
Santa Fe
3–2
Won
Millonarios
The model leans Santa Fe at 50%. Expected goals: Santa Fe 1.69, Millonarios 0.91. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 50%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match55
26
19
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Santa Fe | 55% | 1.83 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.79 | – | – | – |
| 2Millonarios | 19% | 5.26 | – | – | – |
Pick: Santa Fe. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.69 – 0.91| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.6%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.5%
- 0–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Santa Fe −0.5| Santa Fe line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| -0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| 0 | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 13% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.