Junior FC
Atletico Nacional
The model leans Atletico Nacional at 42%. Expected goals: Junior FC 1.18, Atletico Nacional 1.59. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. Junior FC won 1 of their last 5; Atletico Nacional won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Junior FC | 27% | 3.67 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.67 | – | – | – |
| 2Atletico Nacional | 46% | 2.20 | – | – | – |
Pick: Atletico Nacional. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.18 – 1.59| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–27.9%
- 1–07.4%
- 2–17.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Atletico Nacional −0.5| Junior FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 17% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 25% | 47% |
| +0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| +1 | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| +1.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.