Predictions · Cup · outside model coverage
Tigres FC
0–2
Won
Atletico Nacional
The model leans Atletico Nacional at 68%. Expected goals: Tigres FC 0.50, Atletico Nacional 2.33. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 64%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match16
78
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tigres FC | 6% | 17.73 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.06 | – | – | – |
| 2Atletico Nacional | 78% | 1.28 | – | – | – |
Pick: Atletico Nacional. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 78%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.50 – 2.33| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes36% | No64% |
Most likely scores
- 0–216.0%
- 0–113.8%
- 0–312.4%
- 1–28.0%
- 0–47.2%
- 1–16.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Atletico Nacional −1.5| Tigres FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 1% | – | 99% |
| -1 | 1% | 5% | 94% |
| -0.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| 0 | 6% | 15% | 79% |
| +0.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| +1 | 21% | 24% | 55% |
| +1.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.