Alianza FC
Atlético Nacional
The model leans Atlético Nacional at 51%. Expected goals: Alianza FC 0.76, Atlético Nacional 1.65. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 56%. Alianza FC won 0 of their last 3; Atlético Nacional won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Alianza FC | 16% | 6.32 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.77 | – | – | – |
| 2Atlético Nacional | 58% | 1.74 | – | – | – |
Pick: Atlético Nacional. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.76 – 1.65| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 0–114.9%
- 0–212.3%
- 1–111.2%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–09.0%
- 1–06.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Atlético Nacional −1| Alianza FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 12% | 83% |
| -0.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| 0 | 17% | 24% | 59% |
| +0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| +1 | 41% | 26% | 32% |
| +1.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.