Predictions · Colombia Primera A Finalización · outside model coverage
Alianza FC
0–0
Lost
Deportivo Pereira
The model leans Alianza FC at 51%. Expected goals: Alianza FC 1.57, Deportivo Pereira 0.76. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 57%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match56
28
17
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Alianza FC | 56% | 1.80 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.62 | – | – | – |
| 2Deportivo Pereira | 17% | 5.93 | – | – | – |
Pick: Alianza FC. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.57 – 0.76| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.3%
- 2–012.0%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–09.7%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Alianza FC −1| Alianza FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 26% | 43% |
| -0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| 0 | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 13% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.