Atlético Nacional
Deportivo Cali
The model leans Atlético Nacional at 60%. Expected goals: Atlético Nacional 1.92, Deportivo Cali 0.65. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 58%. Atlético Nacional won 3 of their last 5; Deportivo Cali won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atlético Nacional | 67% | 1.50 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.44 | – | – | – |
| 2Deportivo Cali | 11% | 9.29 | – | – | – |
Pick: Atlético Nacional. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 67%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.92 – 0.65| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.7%
- 2–014.1%
- 1–19.5%
- 2–19.2%
- 3–09.1%
- 0–07.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 49% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Atlético Nacional −1| Atlético Nacional line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| -1 | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| -0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| 0 | 68% | 21% | 12% |
| +0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| +1 | 88% | 9% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.