Eldense
Millwall
The model leans Eldense at 29%. Expected goals: Eldense 1.23, Millwall 1.21. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 51%. Eldense won 0 of their last 3; Millwall won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Eldense | 36% | 2.81 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.34 | – | – | – |
| 2Millwall | 34% | 2.91 | – | – | – |
Pick: Eldense. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.23 – 1.21| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%
- 1–010.7%
- 0–110.5%
- 0–08.7%
- 2–18.0%
- 1–27.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Eldense 0| Eldense line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 21% | 63% |
| -0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| 0 | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.