Sporting CP
Nacional
The model leans Sporting CP at 69%. Expected goals: Sporting CP 2.61, Nacional 0.59. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 58%. Sporting CP won 3 of their last 3; Nacional won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sporting CP | 80% | 1.25 | 1.17 | 79% | +1 |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.89 | 6.50 | 14% | 0 |
| 2Nacional | 6% | 17.86 | 13.00 | 7% | −1 |
Pick: Sporting CP. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 80%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.61 – 0.59| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 2–013.8%14.3%
- 3–012.1%13.3%
- 1–010.6%11.1%
- 2–18.2%10.5%
- 4–07.9%9.1%
- 3–17.2%9.1%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sporting CP −2| Sporting CP line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| -1 | 59% | 21% | 20% |
| -0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| 0 | 80% | 13% | 6% |
| +0.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
| +1 | 94% | 5% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Sporting CP -2 | 47% | 2.11 | 2.00 | 48% | −1 |
| Asian handicap | Nacional +2 | 53% | 1.90 | 1.85 | 52% | +1 |
| Draw no bet | Sporting CP | 93% | 1.07 | 1.05 | 91% | +2 |
| Draw no bet | Nacional | 7% | 15.27 | 11.00 | 9% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.41 | 2.00 | 47% | −5 |
| Both teams to score | No | 59% | 1.71 | 1.75 | 53% | +5 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.