Santa Clara
v
Rio Ave
The model leans Santa Clara at 46%. Expected goals: Santa Clara 1.38, Rio Ave 0.82. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 57%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match49
30
21
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Santa Clara | 49% | 2.05 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.31 | – | – | – |
| 2Rio Ave | 21% | 4.73 | – | – | – |
Pick: Santa Clara. Calibrated probability 46% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.38 – 0.82| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.3%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–010.5%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Santa Clara −0.5| Santa Clara line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 26% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| 0 | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.