Alverca
v
Braga
The model leans Braga at 54%. Expected goals: Alverca 0.87, Braga 1.94. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 51%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match15
23
61
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Alverca | 15% | 6.58 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.28 | – | – | – |
| 2Braga | 61% | 1.63 | – | – | – |
Pick: Braga. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.87 – 1.94| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 0–111.6%
- 0–211.3%
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–37.3%
- 1–36.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Braga −1| Alverca line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 11% | 84% |
| -0.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| 0 | 16% | 21% | 62% |
| +0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| +1 | 38% | 25% | 38% |
| +1.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.