Sporting CP
Alverca
The model leans Sporting CP at 70%. Expected goals: Sporting CP 2.95, Alverca 0.58. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 58%. Sporting CP won 3 of their last 3; Alverca won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sporting CP | 84% | 1.18 | 1.17 | 78% | +7 |
| XDraw | 12% | 8.69 | 6.00 | 15% | −4 |
| 2Alverca | 4% | 24.45 | 13.00 | 7% | −3 |
Pick: Sporting CP. Calibrated probability 70% (raw model output 84%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 96%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.95 – 0.58| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 3.5 | 47% | 53% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 2–012.9%
- 3–012.6%
- 4–09.3%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–17.4%
- 3–17.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sporting CP −2| Sporting CP line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| -1 | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| -0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| 0 | 85% | 11% | 5% |
| +0.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
| +1 | 95% | 4% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.