Predictions · Ligue 3 · outside model coverage

Quevilly

21
Lost

FC Fleury 91

The model leans FC Fleury 91 at 42%. Expected goals: Quevilly 0.95, FC Fleury 91 1.39. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 53%. Quevilly won 1 of their last 4; FC Fleury 91 won 0 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Quevilly24%4.10
XDraw30%3.36
2FC Fleury 9146%2.18

Pick: FC Fleury 91. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 76%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 0.95 – 1.39
LineOverUnder
1.568%32%
2.541%59%
3.521%79%
Both teams to scoreYes46%No54%

Most likely scores

  • 0113.4%
  • 1112.7%
  • 009.7%
  • 029.3%
  • 109.2%
  • 128.8%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: FC Fleury 91 −0.5
Quevilly lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.59%91%
-19%17%74%
-0.526%74%
026%27%47%
+0.553%47%
+153%24%23%
+1.577%23%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.